COLUMBIA, S.C. — Former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds to win the South Carolina primary have risen sharply over the past few days, making him once again the favorite to win the Feb. 29 race.
As of just before 4 p.m. Friday, the website Election Betting Odds — using odds from PredictIt — lists Biden as 54% likely to win the South Carolina primary with Sen. Bernie Sanders from Vermont in second place with a 33.2% chance to win the primary.
No other candidate is more than 2% likely to win the primary.
Other websites using betting odds to predict election outcomes indicate a similar number. Eli Dourado’s Primary Guide has Biden at a slightly higher likelihood of winning, 53.2%. Sanders is listed at 38.02% likely to win.
Biden’s likelihood to win the primary has risen sharply over the past three days.
According to charts on Election Betting Odds, as of 8:41 p.m. Tuesday, Biden was 28.7% likely to win the primary, placing him 20 points lower than Sanders. At 8:41 p.m. Tuesday, Sanders was 48.8% likely to win the primary.
Since then, the odds have shifted to favor Biden.
Biden’s likelihood to win bypassed Sanders’ at around 9:15 p.m. Thursday.
Before his recent rise, Biden’s odds of winning the primary had been dropping steadily since at least Jan. 15. His likelihood to win hit a high of 77.1% at around noon on that date.
Sanders’ likelihood to win had been steadily increasing since late January. He came close to equaling Biden’s likelihood to win on Feb. 6, but Biden’s odds continued to remain higher until Feb. 9 when Sanders moved ahead.
National impactAs Biden’s likelihood of winning the South Carolina primary has increased, Sanders’ likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination has decreased.
Sanders’ likelihood of winning the Democratic primary peaked — as of Friday — at 8:27 p.m. Tuesday at 41.5% likely to win the nomination.
He had passed Biden, who had been the favorite since late October, in late January.
But Sanders’ drop isn’t helping Biden.
Biden’s likelihood to win the nomination has remained in the single digits, as of 3 p.m. Friday at 7.7% likely to win the nomination. His likelihood of winning the nomination peaked Jan. 6 and Jan. 21 at 36.8%, with a steady drop since.
However, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s likelihood to win the nomination has jumped. His likelihood of winning the nomination hit a nadir of 5.4% on Jan.2 and has increased since that time. He is currently at 33.6% likely to win the nomination, just above Sanders, who is at 33.2% likely to win.
Election Betting Odds recommends using a margin of likelihood at around 3-4%, indicating the two candidates are neck-and-neck in the race.
No other candidate is above 2% likely to win the nomination.